Economic and Environmental Impacts of EV Smart Charging Programs on the US Power Sector

with Dr. Kara Kockelman
Dewitt Greer Centennial Professor of Transportation Engineering
University of Texas at Austin

Coffee + cider donuts

Abstract

Electric vehicle (EV) charging patterns significantly influence power grid operations and investment needs. This study utilizes the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model to assess various EV charging strategies in the U.S., including unmanaged charging, daytime and nighttime smart-charging programs with two different participation rates, and fully managed EV charging. These strategies are examined under two EV demand projections: TEMPO and Fast Adoption. The analysis focuses on their effects on grid emissions, the power capacity and generation mixes, and associated investment and operating costs. Key findings reveal that with the TEMPO EV demand projection, fully managed charging could reduce system costs by 2% and carbon emissions by 6% over 25 years, assuming that all new light-duty vehicles in the U.S. are EVs by 2035. In contrast, unmanaged charging necessitates a significant increase in battery storage capacity compared to smart-charging or fully managed strategies, highlighting the critical role of strategic charging management in addressing the infrastructural challenges posed by rising EV penetration. The smart-charging program definitions presented in this study are based on Dean and Kockelman’s (2024) online survey results, from assessing U.S. adults’ perspectives on plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) and their preferences for smart-charging initiatives. The novelty of this paper resides in its comprehensive comparison of costs versus benefits of smart-charging programs and their impact on the U.S. power sector. In the TEMPO case, the highest avoided emissions costs per participating-EV-year are realized in the Central and Midwest regions ($69 and $67 per EV-year), while the lowest are observed in the Arkansas-Louisiana region (at a loss of $81 per EV-year). Nighttime charging is preferred over daytime charging to minimize emissions. The Central region (containing North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, and Oklahoma) enjoys significant smart-charging benefits under both the TEMPO and FA cases. Conversely, the lowest avoided electricity system costs per EV are experienced in the Florida and Texas regions in the FA case. Per EV-year, the benefits from grid savings are likely to be much larger than emissions costs savings.

Bio

Dr. Kockelman holds the Dewitt Greer Centennial Professorship in Transportation Engineering at the University of Texas at Austin. She is Associate Site Director of the NSF Industry-University Cooperative Research Center for Efficient Vehicles and Sustainable Transportation Systems and she recently served as President of the North American Regional Science Association. Dr. Kockelman is the recipient of an NSF CAREER Award, Google Research Award, MIT Technology Review Top 100 Innovators Award, Vulog’s Top 20 of 2020 Influential Women in Mobility, and various ASCE, NARSC, TRF, and WTS awards.  She has authored over 230 journal articles and two books, and her primary research interests include planning for shared and autonomous vehicle systems, the statistical modeling of urban systems, energy and climate issues, the economic impacts of transport policy, and crash occurrence and consequences.